Nifty’s highest return in April was 14.7% in 2020, during the Covid-induced nationwide lockdown. The next best years were 2018 and 2023, when the 50-stock benchmark gained 6.2% and 4%, respectively.
The index’s April returns in 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2024 were 1.44%, 1.42%, 1.07%, and 1.24%, respectively.
The three instances when Nifty closed negative in April were in 2015 (-3.65%), 2021 (-0.41%), and 2022 (-2.07%).
FII/DII data
So far in 2025, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been net sellers in all the three months.
The FIIs have remained net buyers in the opening month of the new financial year on five occasions between 2015 and 2024.
The highest buying was seen in April 2019, when the FIIs bought shares worth Rs 21,193 crore. It was followed by Rs 11,721 crore in 2015 and Rs 11,631 crore in 2023. The foreign investors were net sellers in 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2024.
The Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers on 8 occasions in the past decade i.e. in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. The buying was highest in 2024 when DIIs bought shares worth Rs 44,186 crore. The next highest was in 2022 at Rs 30,842 crore.
Nifty rollover data
FIIs have ramped up their bullish bets on the Indian market heading into the April derivatives series and sector rotation could be in focus in the April series.
The foreign investors have sharply increased their long positions in index futures. FIIs’ net long positions in index futures rose to 60,054 contracts, up from 41,784 contracts in the previous series, while their short positions dropped to 90,609 contracts, a steep decline from 215,318 contracts, according to data from Axis Securities.
FIIs turn bullish on Nifty, sector rotation in focus for April series
While Nifty rollovers in the March series came in lower than the previous series, market positioning suggests continued optimism, particularly in sectors like chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and FMCG, according to data from brokerage reports. Nifty rollovers came in at 76.1%, down from 83.6% for the previous expiry, and below the quarterly average of 80.1%.
Nifty on charts
Nifty is expected to extend the last four sessions consolidation in the range of 23,850-23,200 going ahead, thus working off the overbought condition developed in the daily stochastic after the recent sharp rally, said Bajaj Broking in a note. “Overall trends remain positive, we believe the current breather should be used as a buying opportunity in quality stocks in a staggered manner for up move towards 24,200 levels in the coming weeks,” the note said.
Immediate support is placed near last week’s low of 23,400, while key short-term support is placed at 23,200-23,000 levels being the confluence of 50 days EMA and recent breakout area, this brokerage said.
Also Read: FY25 in a nutshell: Sensex, Nifty end with over 5% gains. Check FII record, sectoral snapshot
(Data Inputs from Ritesh Presswala)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
