Delhi residents awaiting winter may have to wait longer, as temperatures remain unusually high. Despite Diwali passing and November being well underway, temperatures have yet to drop. Predictions from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggest that Delhi’s temperatures will stay unusually high through the first half of November.
October was recorded as the warmest in 74 years, and November appears to be following a similar trend. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain above 30°C until November 21 — about 4-6 degrees Celsius higher than average for this time of year.
WHY IS THE TEMPERATURE NOT DROPPING?
In winter, colder temperatures in Delhi are usually brought on by “Western Disturbances” – weather systems that can bring rainfall and cause temperatures to fall across northern India.
Since the monsoon’s end, however, not a single active Western Disturbance has reached Delhi or the northern plains.
This has resulted in about 80% less rainfall than usual, keeping temperatures higher than normal in the region.
WILL DELHI RECEIVE RAIN IN THE COMING WEEKS?
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has ruled out chances of rain in Delhi over the next two weeks.
While a Western Disturbance might develop between November 16 and 21, it appears weak and is unlikely to impact Delhi or bring precipitation beyond the upper Himalayas.
THE ROLE OF EL NINO AND LA NINA
Typically, El Nino contributes to global warming, while La Nina brings cooling effects.
It was anticipated that El Nino would subside this winter, giving way to La Nina and potentially leading to colder conditions.
However, the IMD reports that El Nino is currently in a neutral state and has not fully subsided. La Nina is expected to emerge between November and December, but it is uncertain how long it will last or what its impact on Delhi’s winter will be, as weather models vary in their predictions.
For now, residents of Delhi will have to keep waiting for the winter chill to arrive, as temperatures remain above average for mid-November.
